February 1, 2026
“Given that the US views China—not Russia—as its main adversary and competitor, America’s emergence in this form within a region it had largely forgotten in the past must be linked precisely to the desire to weaken China’s influence.”
The idea of the economic and political integration of the South Caucasus remains quite popular to this day, not only in Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia, but also within the political and academic circles of countries interested in the region. The Karabakh conflict was cited as the main obstacle to its implementation. The end of the conflict, and the signing of the peace declaration between Azerbaijan and Armenia on August 8, 2025, should have injected new energy into this process. However, it may soon turn out that the new reality brought about by peace itself could become the main hindrance to its realization.
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, all three countries underwent complete deindustrialization. This implies not merely the disappearance of factories and plants, but the inability to create high value-added products, which is vitally important for a country’s competitiveness. According to the UN Industrial Development Index, out of 140 countries, Armenia ranks 89th, Georgia 99th, and Azerbaijan 103rd. This circumstance clearly indicates that the economies of all three countries depend mainly on geographic location and natural resources, rather than on the technological readiness and skills of the economically active population.
Searching for the reasons behind this is a subject for another discussion, but I must touch upon one circumstance. In social sciences, there is a concept known as “path dependence” (or “trodden path syndrome”), which implies that replacing institutions established in the past requires such great effort that often, despite the necessity, countries remain loyal to them.
One hopes that the aforementioned countries remain loyal to the neoliberal economic paradigm and institutions (mass privatization, economic deregulation, trade and market liberalization) dictated by international organizations in the 90s due to path dependence, rather than the incompetence of their governments.
Already since the 90s, due to geographic location, acquiring the function of a transport corridor connecting Europe and Asia became the main vector of economic development for the South Caucasus countries. Let us recall the TRACECA project, in which countries from the Black Sea, Central Asia, and the South Caucasus participated.
Due to its access to the Black Sea, Georgia soon established itself as a transit route for oil and gas between Azerbaijan and Turkey. The increased cargo turnover between China and Europe, which today stands at 845 billion dollars, has added even more importance to the transport route of Central Asia and the South Caucasus. Today, this route is known as the Middle Corridor. 90% of cargo turnover between China and Europe is carried out via the ocean, mainly through the Suez Canal. The rest comprises land transport, the vast majority of which passes through Russia. The search for alternatives to these transit routes began during the pandemic, while against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine war and growing instability in the Middle East, their diversification became necessary. Therefore, international financial institutions consider the Middle Corridor the main alternative to the Russian land route, provided countries harmonize infrastructure and regulations.
Naturally, China’s role in this process is particularly significant, including as an investor. It views the Middle Corridor as part of the “Belt and Road” project, which implies investing in and promoting development in the countries involved in this initiative.
China has already overtaken the US economically. Furthermore, it is advanced in terms of technological development, while its non-interventionist foreign policy and economic diplomacy make it a desirable partner for the countries of the region. As a result, its influence in the Central Asia and South Caucasus regions is growing.
Because Russia is expending its entire economic and political resource in the war against Ukraine, the countries of the region are trying to balance its influence by bringing in other great powers. Therefore, today, the South Caucasus and Central Asia region represents, at first glance, the most stable, but at the same time, the main bone of contention for the influence of great powers. Proof of this is that the peace declaration between Azerbaijan and Armenia was signed in Washington in August, and on November 6, the heads of all five Central Asian countries visited the White House, where the foundation was laid for numerous investment initiatives.
Another example of the struggle for influence by great powers in the region is the so-called “Trump’s Peace Corridor,” or the Zangezur Corridor, which is intended to connect Azerbaijan to Turkey via Armenia. The United States is ready to provide both financial support for the project and ensure its security. At first glance, this seemingly harmless economic project could yield far-reaching results for the region’s geopolitics. Given that the US views China—not Russia—as its main adversary and competitor, America’s emergence in this form within a region it had largely forgotten in the past must be linked precisely to the desire to weaken China’s influence.
If the Middle Corridor countries have the ambition, it could turn into a corridor connecting China and Europe, rather than just serving intra-regional cargo turnover. Theoretically, as a result of opening the Zangezur Corridor, there are now two alternatives for implementing this. In one case, cargo coming from China passes through Central Asia and subsequently Azerbaijan, heading directly from Georgian ports toward the European Black Sea basin countries. The alternative route implies transporting cargo already brought to Azerbaijan into Turkey via Zangezur.
Armenia’s decision to recognize Azerbaijan’s sovereignty over Karabakh and make peace is driven not only by the weakening of Russia in the region but also by its long-standing aspiration to escape isolation and become a transit country.
In 2025, the now-traditional Silk Road Forum was held in Tbilisi. Although the governments of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia spoke of the new spirit of regional integration emerging from the end of the Karabakh conflict, a certain awkwardness was still palpable. All parties declared that the Zangezur Corridor would not be an alternative to the Georgian route, but a complement to it.
Which direction is given priority depends on many factors: how quickly the necessary infrastructure is established between the transit corridor countries, the introduction of unified tariffs, digitalization, the nature of the cargo, and the price of transportation. However, the main factor will be the countries’ political decisions.
It is unlikely that China will route its cargo through a corridor controlled by America. Therefore, should it wish to promote the development of the Middle Corridor, preference will be given to Georgia, and specifically to the Anaklia Port. One hopes that both the Georgian government and other countries in the Middle Corridor region realize this.
It appears that new conflicting interests will push the implementation of this rather idealistic view of the political and economic integration of the South Caucasus countries further into the future.
Source : https://www.resonancedaily.com/mobile/index.php?id_rub=11&id_artc=241325